Well, it was a fun ride. At least most of the time, sometimes it felt more like an abusive relationship.
To date Trubar (formerly Simply Better Brands) is my only repeat annual Wolf Pick - selected both in 2023 and 2025.
In case you’re living under a rock, Trubar announced they were being acquired for $1.64 a share this morning by ETİ Gıda, a CPG company based out of Turkey. That represents a 64% premium to the current share price, an 86% win from the 2025 Wolf Pick, and a 7 bagger (613%) from the 2023 pick. Let’s discuss.
The transaction, valued at $201M could be viewed by some retail shareholders as disappointing. I totally get it. Including their Q3 revenues, (also announced today) had their TTM in the neighbourhood of $90M CAD. That represents a 2.2x multiple, and that would be by far the lowest revenue multiple for a M&A transaction within this sector in the past eight years - at least according to the table below that the company has been sharing eagerly for sometime. The average multiple of 4.1x would have generated a $370M purchase price.
While I understand how some shareholders are disappointed here, I am far from taking that position. While it sounds nice, solely using a revenue multiple for anything is a terrible idea.
In looking at the M&A transactions above, four of them had known or estimated EBITDA at the time of the transactions. Those averaged just over 12x EBITDA when acquired. The $201M purchase price using an EBITDA multiple would equal nearly $17M. Trubar has negative YTD EBITDA and also on a TTM basis. In fact, they were also negative on the adjusted EBITDA line.
From what we know of the comparable deals, the acquired companies above also had much better looking balance sheets than Trubar. The oldest one on the list (Kellogg’s acquiring RXbar) was for $600M, and it included $400M of tax benefits and no debt. It was also profitable out of the gate for Kellogg’s with an 11% net margin in the first year of the deal. ETİ Gıda is not going to see anywhere near that type of immediate return.
Comparatively, Trubar’s results were not in the same ballpark as the others, at least of the ones we can gather data from. Margins were shrinking with rising promotional costs. They also ended Q3 with a quick ratio of .5 highlighting their poor liquidity situation, TTM operational cash burn of approximately $12M, and had burned through nearly 60% of their line of credit. A raise of capital or an increase in bank debt was likely in the cards before the company reported their Q4.
There are many reasons why it didn’t garner a higher multiple. I could take additional shots at management here but I’ve done that before and it would be exhausting. Plain and simple - Trubar’s results didn’t warrant or deserve that average 4.1x revenue multiple.
Be thankful, put them in your rear view, take your profits and move on to the next one. There always is and the 2026 Wolf Picks are less than a month away.
Disclaimer:
My intent is for my reviews to be a bolt on to due diligence that you have already completed. I receive dozens of review requests a week, therefore my own DD may be great or none whatsoever. Unless otherwise stated or implied, my opinions are on the financial performance of the company based on their most recent filings. I conduct these reviews to assist other retail investors whose research skills are limited when it comes to reviewing financial statements. I do not accept compensation of any kind from company’s I review.
Wolf FINS Reviews are intended to be informational and are based on personal opinion. They are not intended to be financial advice, and all readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence prior to their investment decisions, including discussions with their investment advisor.